This is how Congress lost an election that was a cake walk for it in Haryana.
Sometimes, winning an election is not just securing the highest vote, it is also dividing the other party such that you win by default.
That is what seems to have happened in Haryana.
Congress rebel candidates ensured that the official candidate’s votes were taken away by them.
Thus, one can blame those who distributed the tickets as they seem to have misjudged the capability of the candidate that they fielded and perhaps ignored other aspirants to the seat.
Also, one can not for sure know, who financed these rebels?
Elections are a very costly affair. Any candidate that contests ends up spending a few crores on the election. Of course, there are just rewards after getting elected. You can become a minister or get a cosy job as a Chairman of a corporation. In each case, you can recover the money that you spent on your election and more.
BJP has won the day with 48 seats. A detailed analysis will reveal that total votes of the BJP candidate is less than the sum of those votes garnered by Congress and its rebel candidate. Congress was done in by its rebels.
If the aim of becoming a legislator is to gain power and through power gain pelf, then the rebels have lost both of the opportunities. They perhaps thought that they will be able to defeat the official candidate and thus become valuable for the party or to the BJP as they would be independents who had won on their own (with help from BJP of course).
Their dreams lie shattered as they have become the proverbial Dhobi Ka Kutta, Na Ghar Ka, Na Ghat Ka.
Congress will have to do some deep introspection and course correction.
BJP will finance rebel candidates, it may even offer them money for the elections and also pay them more not just to cover their expenses for the next five years in the political arena but also for leading a cozy life for the next five years. They would also have entered the BJP’s inner circle.
After all, not every MLA who wins gets a shot at a ministry or a department where they can make money. So, it is better to contest as a rebel, all expenses paid by BJP and laugh all the way to the bank too.
BJP’s performance of 48 seats is even better than its performance in 2014, at the peak of Modi wave. It looks like they won by default. They won because Congress did not quell the rebel candidates.
Why did the Congress not quell the rebel candidates?
The reason why Congress perhaps did not quell the rebel candidates is that, one it was sure that it will win, no matter which candidate they put up, two, they were cocksure about Rahul Gandhi’s charisma taking them across the finish line, three, they thought that people were so upset that they would throw out BJP and by default Congress would win, four, they underestimated the power of rebels and perhaps ignored the fact that the rebels could be financed by BJP to split the votes.
Earlier, BJP would finance other smaller party’s to play the spoilsport, this time they did it from within Congress itself.
This time for Congress the danger came from within.
There are lessons to be learned here. If Congress does not learn the lessons from this election, Jharkhand and Maharashtra will also follow suit and fall into BJP’s lap, by default. In fact, Maharashtra will once again see Congress rebel candidates as they sense victory and a chance to form the government. Also, in Maharashtra, Shinde/Fadnavis/Ajit Pawar are better placed than BJP was in Haryana. In Haryana the three main issues were Kissan, Jawan and Pehalwan, all affecting the common people. In Maharashtra, the current government has been on a dole giving spree. It has given 4000 to every female that was registered under the Ladki Behna Scheme. BJP deployed its cadre in every village and street and ensured that maximum number of women apply for the scheme. The money has hit their bank accounts.
It does not matter that tomatoes are selling for 100 Rupees per kg, it does not matter that import duty on sunflower oil was increased by 20% (most sunflower oil is imported), it does not matter that vegetables and lentil prices are zooming out of control, what matters is that 4000 Rupees has hit the bank accounts!
If there is some sane counsel in Congress, it will learn lessons from its Haryana debacle and find out ways and means to quell the rebels such that it can take a fair shot at winning Maharashtra.
While writing this post, there was news that EVM’s were found which had a 99% charged battery, a physical impossibility. Does that mean that the EVM’s were tampered and votes inserted at a later stage? Only a detailed investigation will tell. But then, who will bell the cat?
Congress has missed many an opportunity to corner the Election Commission. Will the EC get away this time too? Only time will tell.
Will Congress win Jharkhand and Maharashtra? Given the way BJP fights the election, using everything at its disposal, using means fair and foul, one would say that it is an open season.
Bigger question is will Rahul Gandhi, the de-facto leader of Congress realize the folly of Haryana?