Take a look at the graphic below.
It is a sea of red and yellow. Red indicates -59% to -20% less rainfall. Yellow Indicates even worse, -99% to -66% rainfall. Gujarat, Rajasthan, MP, Haryana are all in the Yellow Zone. Telangana and Andhra Pradesh have some hope from the second season of South East Monsoon.
By and large, the country is going to experience a drought almost across the country.
Haryana and MP are both major wheat producers. Haryana is a major rice producer in the country.
The situation in UP too does not look too good.
We have 80,00,00,000 (80 Crore) Indians already living on free ration. There is a war going on between Russia and Ukraine which is having an effect on wheat production in the world.
There are elections coming up in five states followed by General Elections of 2024. Modi Sarkar can not afford to roll back the free ration program till such time as elections get over.
If Modi Sarkar loses the election, then the situation will pose a challenge to the incoming government. If Modi Sarkar wins, it will still have to grapple with the problem.
We are in for some tough time. Food inflation has already had a telling effect on the savings of Indians, our savings have fallen from 11.6 to 7.2 to 5.1% of GDP in 2021, 2022 and 2023 respectively.
Unsecured loans are growing and has the RBI worried. Foreign analysts are already flagging the growth in personal unsecured loans as the economy faces fall in savings and increase in borrowing.
Although this advise is counter productive to the smooth running of our economy, it seems till the time the clouds roll in again, we will have to live a frugal life and put all unnecessary expenses on hold.
The rain gods did not smile on us this year and like always Modi Sarkar is taking an ostrich like approach, instead of preparing for the worst, burying its head in the sand and hoping that the danger will go away.
It won’t.